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Maruyama, Shuhei; Yamamoto, Akio*; Endo, Tomohiro*
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 205, p.110591_1 - 110591_13, 2024/09
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken
Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 10(4), p.23-00051_1 - 23-00051_17, 2023/08
The significance of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants against external events was re-recognized after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Regarding the seismic PRA, handling correlated failures of systems, components, and structures (SSCs) is very important because this type of failure negatively affects the redundancy of accident mitigation systems. The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute initially developed a fault tree quantification methodology named the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM) to handle SSCs' correlated failures in detail and realistically. This methodology allows quantifying the top event occurrence probability by considering correlated uncertainties related to seismic responses and capacities with Monte Carlo sampling. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. However, improving its computational efficiency would allow risk analysts to perform several analyses. Therefore, we applied quasi-Monte Carlo and importance sampling to the DQFM calculation of simplified seismic PRA and examined their effects. Specifically, the conditional core damage probability of a hypothetical pressurized water reactor was analyzed with some assumptions. Applying the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling accelerates the convergence of results at intermediate and high ground motion levels by an order of magnitude over Monte Carlo sampling. The application of importance sampling allows us to obtain a statistically significant result at a low ground motion level, which cannot be obtained through Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. These results indicate that these applications provide a notable acceleration of computation and raise the potential for the practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.
Tuya, D.; Nagaya, Yasunobu
Nuclear Science and Engineering, 15 Pages, 2023/00
Times Cited Count：0 Percentile：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)In Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations for local response or deep penetration problems, some estimation of an importance function is generally required in order to improve their efficiency. In this work, a new recursive Monte Carlo (RMC) method, which is partly based on the original RMC method, for estimating an importance function for local variance reduction (i.e., source-detector type) problems has been developed. The new RMC method has been applied to two sample problems of varying degrees of neutron penetrations, namely a one-dimensional iron slab problem and a three-dimensional concrete-air problem. The biased Monte Carlo calculations with variance reduction parameters based on the obtained importance functions by the new RMC method have been performed to estimate detector responses in these problems. The obtained results are in agreement with those by the reference unbiased Monte Carlo calculations. Furthermore, the biased calculations offered an increase in efficiency on the order of 1 to 10
in terms of the figure of merit (FOM). The results also indicated that the efficiency increased as the neutron penetration became deeper.
Kubo, Kotaro; Fujiwara, Keita*; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken*
Proceedings of 29th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 29) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2022/08
After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, the importance of conducting probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of external events, especially seismic activities and tsunamis, was recognized. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing a computational methodology for seismic PRA, called the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM). When appropriate correlation matrices are available for seismic responses and capacities of components, the DQFM makes it possible to consider the effect of correlated failures of components connected through AND and/or OR gates in fault trees, which is practically difficult when methods using analytical solutions or multidimensional numerical integrations are used to obtain minimal cut set probabilities. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. Nevertheless, a reduction of the computational time of DQFM would allow the large number of analyses required in PRAs conducted by regulators and/or operators. We; therefore, performed scoping calculations using three different approaches, namely quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing, to improve calculation efficiency. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing were applied when calculating the conditional core damage probability of a simplified PRA model of a pressurized water reactor, using the DQFM method. The results indicated that the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling works well at assumed medium and high ground motion levels, importance sampling is suitable for assumed low ground motion level, and that parallel computing enables practical uncertainty and importance analysis. The combined implementation of these improvements in a PRA code is expected to provide a significant acceleration of computation and offers the prospect of practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.
-eigenvalue perturbation in Monte Carlo calculationTuya, D.; Nagaya, Yasunobu
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 169, p.108919_1 - 108919_9, 2022/05
Times Cited Count：1 Percentile：29.26(Nuclear Science & Technology)Estimating an effect of a perturbation in a fissile system on its -eigenvalue requires special technique called perturbation theory when the considered perturbation is small. In this study, we develop an adjoint-weighted correlated sampling (AWCS) method based on the exact perturbation theory without any approximation by combining the correlated sampling (CS) method with iterated-fission probability (IFP) based adjoint-weighting method. With the advantages of the CS method being good at providing very small uncertainty for small perturbations and the IFP-based adjoint-weighting method being suitable for continuous-energy Monte Carlo calculation, the developed AWCS method based on the exact perturbation theory offers a new rigorous approach for perturbation calculations. The obtained results by the developed AWCS method for verification problems involving Godiva and simplified STACY density perturbations showed good agreement with the reference calculations.
Kubo, Kotaro; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(3), p.357 - 367, 2022/03
Times Cited Count：5 Percentile：64.12(Nuclear Science & Technology)Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which handles epistemic and aleatory uncertainties by coupling the thermal-hydraulics simulation and probabilistic sampling, enables a more realistic and detailed analysis than conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a station blackout sequence in a boiling water reactor and compared each method. The result indicated that quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method handles the uncertainties most effectively in the assumed scenario.
Nagaya, Yasunobu
Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Mathematics and Computation, Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications and the Monte Carlo Method (M&C + SNA + MC 2015) (CD-ROM), 9 Pages, 2015/04
A new method to calculate the prompt neutron decay constant (
) with the Monte Carlo method is proposed. It is based on the conventional - search algorithm but no iteration is required for the value search. The eigenvalue is expressed in the truncated Taylor series with regard to ; the differential coefficients are calculated with the differential operator sampling, which is one of the Monte Carlo perturbation techniques. In order to examine the applicability of the proposed method, verification has been performed for simple geometries of a bare fast system (Godiva) and an unreflected thermal system (STACY). Comparisons has been done with the pulsed neutron source (PNS) simulation and the direct calculation from the definition of the value. The results with the proposed method show good agreement with the reference PNS simulation.
Nagaya, Yasunobu; Mori, Takamasa
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 42(5), p.428 - 441, 2005/05
Times Cited Count：61 Percentile：95.82(Nuclear Science & Technology)A new method to estimate a change in the effective multiplication factor due to the perturbed fission source distribution has been proposed for Monte Carlo perturbation calculations with the correlated sampling and differential operator sampling techniques. The method has been implemented into the MVP code for verification. Simple benchmark problems have been set up for fast and thermal systems and the applicability of the method has been verified with the problems. In consequence, it has been confirmed that the method is very effective to estimate the change. It has been also shown that there are some cases where the perturbed source effect is significant and the change in reactivity cannot be estimated accurately without taking the effect into account. Even in such cases, the new method can estimate the perturbed source effect and the estimation of the change in reactivity has been remarkably improved.
Li, Y.*; Kato, Daisuke*; Shibata, Katsuyuki; Onizawa, Kunio
International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 78(4), p.271 - 282, 2001/04
Times Cited Count：5 Percentile：41.36(Engineering, Multidisciplinary)no abstracts in English
Nagaya, Yasunobu; Mori, Takamasa
Proceedings of the ANS International Topical Meeting on Advances in Reactor Physics and Mathematics and Computation into the Next Millennium (PHYSOR2000) (CD-ROM), p.13 - 0, 2000/00
no abstracts in English
Homma, Toshimitsu; *
JAERI-M 93-207, 36 Pages, 1993/10
no abstracts in English
Ishigami, Tsutomu
JAERI-M 89-190, 66 Pages, 1989/11
no abstracts in English
Ishigami, Tsutomu; Homma, Toshimitsu
JAERI-M 89-111, 27 Pages, 1989/09
no abstracts in English
Nakagawa, Masayuki;
JAERI-M 8556, 40 Pages, 1979/11
no abstracts in English
Nakagawa, Masayuki;
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 15(6), p.400 - 410, 1978/06
Times Cited Count：18no abstracts in English
